Over a week removed from the 2020 NFL Draft, a lot of the excitement and buzz from the event has settled. I’ve had time to digest who went where with some time to analyze how offences may potentially look next season.
I recently wrote an article about the biggest average-draft position (ADP) risers in fantasy football. The problem with up, however, is that there’s always a down.
Here are the players who have falling ADPs in fantasy football drafts.
*All ADPs are retrieved from the National Fantasy Football Championships.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens
Pre-draft ADP: 47.08 Post-draft ADP: 55.80
I’m actually a little surprised that Ingram’s ADP hasn’t dropped further. Baltimore drafted a running back in the second round of the draft, and I’d assume they have every intent on him playing a role in this offence. In 2019, Ingram topped 20 touches in a game just once. If the workload is split up evenly, Ingram could be starring at single-digit touches.
Listen: Rally Towel Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 2 – Fantasy football ADP risers and fallers since the NFL Draft
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Pre-draft ADP: 55.93 Post-draft ADP: 67.10
As the man who will be cutting into Ingram’s work, Dobbins’ ADP has also fallen off. The Ravens weren’t the most fantasy-friendly landing spot for Dobbins, considering the other potential fits. Nonetheless, Dobbins’ ADP is 12 picks after Ingram’s which makes him a more appealing option. Baltimore brought him in to help immediately, not just in the future.
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Pre-draft ADP: 48.69 Post-draft ADP: 79.70
Since the Chiefs plucked Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Williams’ ADP has been freefalling. Although Kansas City GM Brett Veach said Edwards-Helaire will compete with Williams for playing time, the writing is on the wall. Williams may get a small amount of work, but I don’t see him managing an equal workload to Edwards-Helaire.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Pre-draft ADP: 49.34 Post-draft ADP: 79.80
I can basically copy and paste everything I wrote about Williams and apply it to Mack. Sure, Jonathan Taylor was taken in the second round, but it was only nine picks after Edwards-Helaire. This situation has an added wrinkle, however, in the form of Nyheim Hines. Mack is not a great pass-catching RB, Taylor is serviceable, but Hines is clearly superior to the others. This could lead to all three backs being involved. If there is a training camp, I highly suggest monitoring this situation then. Right now, it appears messy.
Kerron Johnson, Detroit Lions
Pre-draft ADP: 65.66 Post-draft ADP: 91.40
I think Johnson’s rocky 2019 deserves the benefit of the doubt from the Lions, but it doesn’t appear that he’s getting it. When given a large volume of work last season, he struggled mightily. In the three games where he received 15 carries or more, he averaged over 3.5 yards-per-carry once – and it was against a porous Kansas City run defence. D’Andre Swift is a legitimate threat to take over as the distant 1A RB in this offence. His ADP has also dropped from 35.87 to 45.40 since being selected by Detroit.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Pre-draft ADP: 91.07 Post-draft ADP: 109.80
The presence of Cam Akers in Los Angeles will likely relegate Henderson to 1B duties. Those who were expecting the 2019 third-round pick to take control of the Rams’ backfield post-Gurley have been left in a tough spot. I liked Henderson when he entered the draft last year, but Akers is the better prospect by a noticeable margin. Henderson’s inconsistency in 2019 is likely what led to the Rams’ decision to draft a running back in Rd. 2 this year.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
Pre-draft ADP: 90.13 Post-draft ADP: 115.80
The arrival of Melvin Gordon coupled with the suddenly endless receiving options in Denver can be attributed to Lindsay’s ADP plunge. The undrafted free agent handled 224 carries for the Broncos last season and managed a very respectable 4.5 yards-per-carry, but he won’t see that kind of volume in 2020. I can see Denver deploying Lindsay very similarly to the Los Angeles Chargers’ use of Austin Ekeler, however. I think there’s value to be had at Lindsay’s current ADP as a flex option.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Pre-draft ADP: 73.48 Post-draft ADP: 82.70
Gallup’s ADP has dropped only nine spots, but I’d argue his value has been dampened the most since the NFL Draft. I’m a little surprised to see him going 18 spots ahead of CeeDee Lamb currently, as I think Lamb will operate as the Cowboys’ WR2. Gallup is a talented receiver and will benefit from less attention in defensive coverages, but there’s way more competition for targets now. I’ll take Lamb at a discounted ADP all day.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Pre-draft ADP: 152.16 Post-draft ADP: 167.30
I’m actually more interested in Renfrow now than I was prior to the Raiders’ selection of Henry Ruggs III at the NFL Draft. Renfrow operates out of the slot, and having Ruggs III’s speed outside will help clear out the middle. Not to mention, it’ll also leave more space underneath for Renfrow. The arrival of Ruggs III shouldn’t be viewed as a massive hindrance to Renfrow’s fantasy value.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars
Pre-draft ADP: 199.33 Post-draft ADP: 217.10
Laviska Shenault Jr.’s presence in Jacksonville’s offence is why Westbrook’s ADP is descending. Obviously, there’s some concern that Westbrook may be relegated to WR3 amongst the group, and nobody ever benefitted from owning the Jaguars’ WR3 in fantasy football.
Tyrell Williams, Las Vegas Raiders
Pre-draft ADP: 197.54 Post-draft ADP: 215.10
Unlike Renfrow, Williams’ value takes a hit with Ruggs III now involved. Williams has always been a solid size-speed receiver, but Ruggs III will now be the primary speedster, deep threat amongst this group. Williams should retain some fantasy value as an option in the red-zone, but he’ll be very hit or miss.
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